/finance/ - Finance

Nobody on here is a financial advisor


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A thread for all stock market/forex/other security exchanges related discussion. Feel free to post suggestions, intriguing articles/findings, unfounded market predictions, gains/losses, or just shitpost on each others' portfolios to your hearts' content. Don't worry about being a beginner at trading and posting since I have yet to even create my first brokerage account. We can learn together.

Potentially Useful Resources That I've nicked from /smg/, pls no bulli
<Risk management: 
https://pastebin.com/sqJUcbjp

<Educational sites: 
https://www.investopedia.com/
https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain

<Live Bloomberg stream: 
https://www.livenewsnow.com/american/bloomberg-television-business.html

<Brokers: 
https://pastebin.com/F1yujtVq

<Stock market dictonary: 
https://pastebin.com/VtnpN5iJ

<Pre-Market Data and Live data: 
https://www.tradingview.com
https://www.finscreener.com/
https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures

<Screeners: 
https://finviz.com/
https://www.tradingview.com/screener
https://etfdb.com/
https://finance.yahoo.com/

<Boomer Investing 101: 
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started

<Misc: 
https://market24hclock.com/
https://tradingeconomics.com
Replies: >>107
Burton_Gordon_Malkiel__-_A_random_walk_down_Wall_Street___the_time-tested_strategy_for_successful_investing_(2011,_Sold_by_Amazon_Digital_Services__W.W._Norton_&_Co.)_-_libgen.lc.pdf
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John_C._Bogle_-_The_Little_Book_of_Common_Sense_Investing__The_Only_Way_to_Guarantee_Your_Fair_Share_of_Stock_Market_Returns_(Little_Book_Big_Profits)_(2007)_-_libgen.lc.pdf
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Fooled_by_Randomness_-_Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb.pdf
(1.6MB)
Here's some books I've found to start off as well.
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>>103 (OP) 
>The Coffeehouse
If that's a reference to pic related, then I'd like to congratulate you, I originally wanted to name the off topic thread Tontine Coffee House, but then realized that it would be wasted on such a thread.
>I have yet to even create my first brokerage account. We can learn together.
All I have ever done so far was to buy 25 stocks at the company I am working for, because it lost nearly 60% of its value since the beginning of the year. An since then it fell an additional ~8.8% (compared to January), although it seems to be relatively stable at that level, as there are haven't been any dramatic drops, and sometimes it even gets a bit stronger. Overall I'm not that worried, I have only blow around 1 months worth of wages on it, and I want to keep it for years to come. Maybe I will even buy some more if there is a dramatic drop again.
Replies: >>111
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>>107
Apologies for the late reply, but yes, I wanted to reference the Tontine Coffee House when I made this thread and am gpad someone got it. I just opened myy brokerage account and am waitong for them to verify and confirm everything. 

>All I have ever done so far was to buy 25 stocks at the company I am working for
Do you plan on buying into anything else like a trust fund or an ETF? I have a couple in mind once I am able to put funds into my account, but I am still very hesitant to buy considering the market right now. I have a feeling that the market has yet to bottom out, so I'll be waiting for that before I buy.
Replies: >>112
>>111
I am in a pension fund also run by the company, they way it works is that I let them put 2% of my wages put into there, and in turn they they throw  in additional funds, worth around 8% of my wages. Moreover, I write off 20% if the money paid in in my name, so after they pay in the money that around 10% of my wages they state also give me back around 4% of my wages. In short, I get 2% less of my account, but get an increase of 12% percent overall. Of course, this being a pension fund, I cannot access that money for quite a while. And it's actually more complicated, because there is also a separate health fund, and there is also a cap on how much of my taxes I can get back, but I'd rather not bore you with all the details.

The point is, I have joined this pension fund last year, and since then it failed to turn any profit, even though it really is a diverse fund run by people who should know what they are doing. I'm only in because the losses so far as significantly smaller than all that extra money I get from my employer and the state. And from what I've read, even hedge funds are not doing much better than my small pension fund. We are in a bear market, so your two best bets are to either do what I do and buy some stocks hoping that they will worth something once we enter a bull market, or do the kind of trading where you spend dozens of dollars to make a few cents of profit. Of course, we live in a crazy world, and memestocks are a thing now, so don't let me clip off your wings.
Replies: >>113
>>112
>Moreover, I write off 20% if the money paid in in my name
I mean, I can write off 20% of that money from my taxes.
I just started learning about stocks, bonds, ETFs, mutual funds and the like. There seems to be a stock or ETF for literally anything imaginable. So far I'm only investing in tiny (under $20 total) amounts fully expecting the investments to pay no returns and drop in value. I think the best part of this stuff is reading the opinion articles where people claim a stock is going way up or way down in value based on absolutely nothing. I'm a window shopper on this stuff and find it fun to see which funds respond to which news headlines and why.
Replies: >>127
>>125
Are you doing it through some fancy new age service provider that just wants you to download and application and give them you card details? Also, remember to look up what kind of taxes you might have to pay.
Replies: >>128
>>127
Already did the tax reading stuff and found a good provider with no fees.
In the news this week was the US GDP data which as far as I know signaled the start of a recession. I saw a lot of mass media saying its not a recession and pointing to a bunch of numbers like jobs added and so on. Is a recession a good time to invest? "Buy the dip" as they say but I'm not seeing many stock prices crashing down yet. My friend gave me a really good reddit picture about investing in stocks for primarily consumer goods since those are always needed.
Replies: >>132
>>131
a recession is a totally great time to invest in my opinion. basically all stocks are on sale while physical goods are slowly rising in cost. this is a kind of perfect example of basic supply/demand theory.
But people already beat you to the punch.

Don't think of it like it's a bad thing because whatever you're looking to drop money into is still relatively inexpensive. it's just not AS cheap as it was months ago when analysts and their goons were planning well in advance.

Always remember to not put in more than what you're comfortable with losing because it can happen. Probably will happen. This recession is unlike any we've seen so far. There are vast discrepancies between datapoints we're used to looking at when declaring a recession. so this one will look and feel a little different than any we've seen. be careful with your money and best of luck
>>135
This post shows an image talking about the benefits of AmEx over MC and Visa. The biggest problem with credit cards is that you have to pay annual fees to even get one. Some places like banks allow you to avoid annual fees if you allow them to hold some money, which is how I have mine. I see credit cards as investments through their benefits and rewards so I think this is the right thread for it. How do you view credit cards? Do you pay annual fees? Are the fees worth the rewards?
Replies: >>137
>>136
I think credit cards are more like a tool that can help you invest if you know what you are doing. In my case, I keep most of my money in bonds, and I use my credit card for daily spending. And so when my wage arrives I pay all my current debt and put whatever remains into bonds. I can also sell these bonds at any time, but it takes a few working days for the money to arrive at my account, so if worst comes to worst I can just max out my credit and pay it all back by burning my precious bonds. Moreover, the cashback from my daily spending is enough to offset the costs of the credit card, but the overall profit is quite minimal.
Replies: >>138
>>137
Using bonds to hold cash seems seems strange for such short term use. Why do you do that? Holding cash seems much easier.
Replies: >>140
>>138
I use bonds to hold them for long term, and I use my credit card so that I can shovel everything I can spare into those bonds. I have virtually no cash (in the sense of money on my account, I can go on for months without ever touching a banknote or coin), and I use my wages to pay back the credit card debt. Long story short, I fully expect a small economic collapse here, and the interest rate of these bonds depends on the inflation (the higher it is, the more they pay), so they will pay me handsomely in the coming years, assuming I can get by without ever touching them.
Replies: >>144
>>140
I see, a long term strategy. You make a good point. Cash at face value is losing value everywhere. Gold and metals do not feel like a good stable or hedge either. I have considered buying metal coins just for fun but they feel useless in todays digital society. I was thinking toilet paper and nonperishable food would be more valuable than printed money not too long ago. One thing that has happened in poorer and high inflation countries is that they adopted foreign currency such as USD. In the case where the USD/EUR/GBP/CNY lose value due to extreme inflation will the people using those move to crypto as some poorer nations attempted? El Salvador I think tried it and when BTC dropped the whole country got worse.
Replies: >>145
>>144
>In the case where the USD/EUR/GBP/CNY lose value due to extreme inflation will the people using those move to crypto as some poorer nations attempted? 
I don't think so, crypto was going strong because people had excess money to dump on dumb shit, and crypto pretty much became something akin to a stock market, except that it really is only fuelled by hopes and dreams devoid of any real value. Of course we can argue how closely tied the stock market in its current form to the performance of the various companies, but at least in theory that connection is there. In other words, if people's money start to lose value then most of them will just use it for their daily spending instead of putting it into crypto, and then the (relatively) few cryptofags trying to push it will be forced to trade with each other until their currencies crash for good. 

People from countries with small open markets switch to foreign currencies exactly because they are small and open, their currency simply cannot compete with the ˝world currencies˝, therefore from their perspective getting some USD or EUR is the same as buying gold in a first world economy, just a whole lot more convenient. It is a pretty reasonable thing to do even if their economy is not crashing, simply because the value of the currency can go down from random events (e.g. a politician says something stupid, and some investors flee the market just to be safe), and that their savings kept in a strong currency are useful even if everything goes to hell is just a very nice bonus. Meanwhile, if the US economy starts crashing, then the average American can't really switch to an other currency, because this crash will hurt the world market, and so every other economy will feel it.
Replies: >>146
Natural gas is once again making headlines. I am enjoying the insanely high prices and waiting to see how high it will go. On the same topic, I have been expecting lithium and other battery raw materials (iron and phosphorus should make the list too) to go up in value with the electric renewable trend around the globe but nothing major has really happened in this area. Been watching uranium, copper, and hydrogen too. Not much is happening on those raw materials right now. 
>>145
When the US economy turns sideways, you buy bonds and raw materials instead of holding USD cash I guess. 

Recently I came across a foreign stock but I cannot find a way to buy it. It seems like local brokers do not interact with stocks from other countries. Probably regulatory and tax stuff involved. If I cannot find a local broker would it be possible to use a foreign broker to buy stock in a foreign company? Has anyone done that? Is it a tax/regulatory shit hole?
Replies: >>147
>>146
>Has anyone done that? Is it a tax/regulatory shit hole?
Although I have not tried it yet, but I know that the answer depends on the country in question. E.g. if a country has an agreement with the US against double taxation, then Americans can buy stocks from that place, and the denizens of that country can also buy American stocks without worrying, because both of them will only have to pay taxes at their respective homeland, instead of paying taxes in both countries. If there is such an agreement between your country and the country of the stocks, then it should be easy enough, you just need to find a broker who deals with stocks from that country. If there is no such agreement, then buying those foreign stocks is usually an unprofitable nightmare, and so nobody bothers with that.

If there is such an agreement in place, you could still try to get in touch with a broker from that country and see if they can help you. Otherwise, you might be about to wander into a world of pain.
I did some looking around with local brokers and the best I can find are US stocks but nothing beyond that. The best I can find locally are locally offered ETFs that consist of foreign stocks but not the stocks I actually want. A foreign broker would be even messier due to taxes and lack of laws on this stuff. Too bad I guess. I did manage to  dispose of my crypto before taking a loss.
Natural gas future prices at Henry hub have started to drop noticably in the last few days. This seems to be based on winter weather predictions and in my opinion is total nonsense. With Russia and OPEC reminding a lot of nations who controls the flow of oil and gas, there has been the beginnings of increases in some indexes for other energy systems. Japan and others have made headlines with nuclear power announcements which I think has driven up uranium indexes. Obviously electricity and battery indexes have been going up too. In the last month a few new ETFs or similar have appeared that offer bulk "utility" market exposure as it appears to be the broad expectation that these are safe bets in the upcoming global economy downturn. 

Does anyone else think using winter weather forecasts to drive NG higher/lower is kind of stupid? I understand doing it for food commodities but it seems too unreliable for energy.
Replies: >>178
>>177
>Does anyone else think using winter weather forecasts to drive NG higher/lower is kind of stupid? I understand doing it for food commodities but it seems too unreliable for energy.
I don't see the problem here. In Europe a whole lot of people use gas to heat their homes, and so in theory they are quite willing to pay a lot in order to avoid freezing to death. But in practice heating a home with gas is just about to become impossible for an average person with the gas prices, and that will mean the governments have to step in, and start regulating the market. It does not matter how they do it exactly, but it will surely cause disturbances and supply issues, so all the factories try to get their gas before that happens; and once it happens, the price of gas freely available on the market might be incredibly high but still affordable for some, or it will lead to some sort of a collapse. But none of this will happen if this will be a mild winter.
Since I just saw that post on the other board, what is an option in terms of nvidia stock?
Replies: >>181
>AMD shares
Are tech company stocks, big ones specifically even worth looking into? My stance on computer hardware is to get stock in the less popular but critical high volume products so the companies that do low power chips like the stuff in cars, calculators, and smart-X.

Like you, I was hoping the ETF for lithium that I have been watching for months would drop but instead it is stable at a price higher than I would like. Kind of annoying to see everything except it drop.
Replies: >>181
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>>179
For the speculator, options are a contract that allows you to expose yourself to the leverage of a hundred shares of an underlying stock without needing to buy that underlying stock. Calls are a bet the stock will rise to at least a given breakeven point before a given expiry date, puts are a bet that the stock will fall to a given breakeven point, and in either case the value of the contract itself is relative to market expectations of the underlying stock being within the breakeven point.
For anon, buying a NVDA put means he would've made shittons of money if the price of NVDA went down more than the market expected, which was "any amount at all" gvien the markets were anticipating positive price swings after the announcement of the new Nvidia GPUs. If the market had been right, anon could've lost potentially shittons of money and would have to sell his yaoihole to pay rent. That's leverage.
>>180
I've personally been looking into TSMC, ASML, and basically every other company Asianometry mentions as being critical to the semiconductor industry, since they actually appear to have good fundamentals, but I'm not sure whether to commit just yet, political pressures on Taiwan from China, the razor thin margins of trailing-edge process nodes and the decreasing importance of leading edge processors make me reconsider.
>https://neuters.de/markets/europe/options-activity-hints-us-stock-market-has-not-reached-bottom-barclays-2022-09-27/
> (Reuters) ...while the trading activity suggests there is still fear in the market, it has not risen to levels associated with past market bottoms...the Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX), known as Wall Street's fear gauge, was at a 3-month high of 33, but far below peaks hit during past bear market lows.
>https://neuters.de/markets/europe/wall-street-futures-resume-fall-economic-worries-weigh-2022-09-29/
>The S&P 500 (.SPX) touched lows last seen in November 2020. Down more than 8% in September, the benchmark is on track for its worst September since 2008.
What's anon's plan? My portfolio is pretty diversified so far, mostly across ETFs, so I'm just going to hold on to what I have, wait for a nice big crash and buy the dip.
Replies: >>199
>>188
Today I was paid my first dividend. 3.6 percent annualized yield is pretty nice and rivals or betters many savings accounts. Almost everything I have is down right now. I have very small gains in some areas but I'm not willing to realize losses for marginal gains or invest more into marginal gains. Just going to wait and see for a few months. If the marginal gains become more concrete then I might move on them.
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When you say would be the perfect time to buy the dip? I'm guessing that when the fed pivots would be a good time, however I'm getting mixed messages especially from a realtor investor I've been watching as of late. He mentions that there is historical precedence for another crash right after the fed pivots from steep interest hikes. I don't know how true that is and wanted a second opinion before I commit to anything. Mostly because I am a NEET with no income, so I have much more to lose in this case.
Replies: >>202 >>203
>>201
Your spoiler is more telling than anything else. Never invest anything you are not willing to lose. As far as timing goes, you can be off by a few weeks and not miss much. As far as I know the 2% inflation days will not be back until 2024 or 2025. Given that it has taken about 6 months to go from spring highs to the present level, you can be off by several weeks from the lowest point in the dip and be just fine.
Replies: >>203
>>201
If anyone knew how to time the dip perfectly, they'd be ludicrously rich. Nobody knows which way the market will move.
Realistically, the markets will will probably sink deeper, and in the long run probably will eventually recover. Even if you buy out of the dip, you'll still, in the long term, gaining 8% annualized returns on the S&P as a whole. The danger for a NEET is needing to dip in to your investments while the markets are down, forcing you to turn your unrealized losses (i.e. money you put into stocks that are down now but will eventually go back up) into realized losses (selling those stocks while they're low).
Basically what I'm saying is the same as >>202 -- don't invest money you can't lose. It's impossible to predict how and when the markets will recover. If anyone here had some magic formula to predict when the best bull market of all time will come back, they'd be using it to buy options and massively leverage their gains.
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Stellantis (STLA) is undervalued. My reasons:
>At current prices, Stellantis’ valuation could offer a potential upside of as much as 40% from current prices based upon comparisons to peers as well as Wall Street analysts and as little as 10% downside if support holds up any macroeconomic headwinds. This presents an enticing investment opportunity going forward for a stock in the automotive industry with potential for further EV exposure. STLA also offers unheard of diversification with everything from premium brands such as Maserati to compact names such as Fiat in their portfolio.
>https://archive.ph/uRnsU#selection-1567.0-1567.541
>Company's operating margin is 9.63%
>STLA is expected to have a more positive net income after recovering from the pandemic
>According to the Graham formula, STLA's fair value is approximately $49.27, making it undervalued when comparing it to its current share price of $12.10 (Oct. 16).
Replies: >>205 >>207
>>204
How much of their manufacturing and consumer base is located in Europe?
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The company I'm working for published a stellar quarterly record, and now the price of its stock skyrocketed! In practice it means the 25 stock I bough around 6 months ago are now worth around as much as I bough them for. Still, that's not enough to break equal because I'd have to pay some taxes if I sold them. I also want to hold them long term, so it's not that news worthy, but it's good to see that at this rate I won't have any unrealized losses by the end of the year.

Except if we factor in inflation. Then I'm fucked no matter what.
>>204
>The principal activity of Stellantis is the design, development, manufacture and sale of automobiles bearing its 16 brands of Abarth, Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, Citroën, Dodge, DS, Fiat, Fiat Professional, Jeep, Lancia, Maserati, Mopar, Opel, Peugeot, Ram and Vauxhall.
Dang, I had no idea so many car brands were under the same company.
Replies: >>208
>>207
Car manufacturing is a joke, there are only a very few big players, and all of them own hosts of companies that all do their own things, except when they work together and either use parts manufactured by an other member of the group, or manufacture the exact same car with a different brand name. I  hope electric cars will develop like PCs, and you will be able to buy all the components separately and put them together on your own, if that's what your thing.
Some kind of mass sell off has begun on natural gas futures for Americans. It's not really a mass sell off as much as people getting antsy about high prices when Freeport is coming back online, gas reserves are full, and predictions of a warmer than usual winter. Last time this happened all it took was some cold air to pass through the US northeast and prices reversed. Maybe history will repeat or maybe I will lose a few dollars.

Question to all of you. Do you use automatic buying/selling (limit sell and limit buy) to help automate your trading when away from the internet? It seems like a good idea to let a machine follow your trading instructions instead of having to check prices daily/hourly/etc.
Replies: >>210
>>209
I'm not trading enough to do that, but if I was serious about it I'd set limits for securities where I am pretty sure what I want from them, and still use manual trading for some more risky business just to keep myself on the edge. In other words, I imagine that automating transactions related to a market you have no idea about could bite you in the ass, but once you know the inns-and-outs I don't see why not.
>stock investment and literal fiat speculation in the same thread
>no investment resources
lol
if you are a fag zoomer or millenial or even boomer looking for a safe(r) place to put your money and let it sit stick to the large cap stocks like merck, eli and lily, chevron etc...everything else is fucked as we are now entering a decade or longer bear market with some pops in between.
This might be better for the speculation thread but I started reading about the covered call strategy and decided to buy some CC ETFs to see what happened. Of course I went for crypto to really amplify the pros and cons of this approach.
I finally got around into looking into some of the finance stuff, after a few years of glancing at it but never bothering to do some reading. I plan to open up an account at a bank sometime soon to dedicate to trading stuff so I don't touch my regular money.

I'll go over some of my findings so far:
The best broker to use I have found is fidelity, as most other brokers are shady, like robinhood, or there have been instances of them messing with peoples accounts. The only issue I've seen with fidelity is that the charts on their mobile app might not be up to date, although their Active Trader Pro software it is fine. An easy option is just to use something like yahoo finance. It seems that there is a fix for it though.

As far as trading stocks goes, the big 3 options would be buying and selling stocks, buying and selling options, and buying and selling ETFs.
Stocks are likely the safest of these three options, and the most simplistic, with you buying the stock you wish to purchase, and then you sell it when you want to cash out, so no worry about losing money as you can only really lose as much as you put in.
Options are the next biggest thing in relation to stocks, and by far one of the riskiest things you can do  as you can easily dig yourself into piles of debt with little recourse. The way options work is that first you must pay a small commission, usually about 0.5$ or around that amount. 

There are 2 main types of options, there is a call, which is you saying I am buying 100 amount of stocks at a set price of 100$ for example and you won't be able to buy more than that 100 shares, however you are not required to buy any stocks at all, but you still have to pay the "fee" per share of stock, so you would be out 200$ because of the fee. 
If your stock goes above 100$, then you are awarded the difference in price, albeit there is an extra cost you must pay per share, so it may be 2$, so if the stock price goes to 150$, you would be getting 48$ from that call. The potential to make a decent amount of money from this is buying tons of stock on a singular call, so say you buy 500 shares of a stock on a call for a net profit of 48$ per share, that is about 4,800$ in returns. Obviously this is a best case scenario, but it gets the concept across. 

Puts are similar to calls with the exception that you do not have to pay that additional fee per share, so instead of 48$ it would be 50$ per share you would be getting. But the general idea of puts is that you buy a 'contract' for an option, where you may purchas a set amount of shares at a set price, but you are betting that the price will go below the price you paid for the shares, and you will get the difference in price minus the premium paid for each stock.

To reiterate above, you buy 100 shares at 100$ a share, the price drops to 50$, you now get 48$ per share or about 5,000$.
The danger of these options is if the market goes in the opposite direction. Say you buy a call of 100 shares at a 'strike price' of 100$ at a 2$ premium, but the stock price goes down to 50, you are now left with 5200$ worth of debt, since you have to pay the premium for those 200$ shares, and you have to pay 5,000$. So you can see that while with stocks, you can only lose as much as you put in generall speaking, you can lose very badly in options.

ETFs are the third biggest option in my opinion, and they are much more like stocks except instead of buying a share in a company, you are buying a share in a sort of 'fund' of different investments. ETF's are a bit more volatile than stocks are, so you have a bit more of a chance in terms of trading, but that can also bite you when selling it as you could sell it for a slightly lower price than you hoped it would go for if you were in the business of buying and selling them. 
ETFs generally work in a similar way as mutual funds do, where you have an expense ratio, which you will find in stuff like mutual funds although an expense ratio in an ETF would not be as high, which could eat into your profits when you do sell your shares. There is also the same risks with stocks of commissions eating into your earnings, and some ETFs have 'trading  fees' which could also eat into your earnings as well. 
For the expense ratio though, say you have a 10k initial investment, after 10 years it matures into a 25k investment, but there is a 1% expense ratio. You would lose about 260$ due  to the expense ratio.

This is about all I have to say for now, I will continue to do readin and try to make more posts later on, and if any anons have any corrections or additional info I would be happy to hear it. I tried to deal with stuff most anons on here would be interested in and might use, as I don't anyone here is a real estate jew or trading niche commodities.
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How do I find a physical broker?  Not a digital one.  Like I have a physical-written-in-paper option contract with a company (a reservation for a company I work for of a number of workers from a staffing company--in other words, I essentially have a call option on labor), I'm not going to use it, and I want to sell it.
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